In Factfulness, a book currently on The New York Times best-seller list, Hans Rosling, the late Swedish physician and statistician, describes ten ways we tend to misinterpret the world around us, and offers advice on how to do better:
•
The gap instinct – This is what
Rosling calls “that irresistible temptation we have to divide all kinds of
things into two distinct and often conflicting groups, with an imagined gap – a
huge chasm of injustice – in between.” For example, it’s common for people to
see the world dramatically split between rich and poor countries. In fact, the
2017 world population is at four levels: Level 1, very poor, getting around on
foot (about 1 billion people); Level 2, improving conditions, traveling by
bicycle (3 billion); Level 3, more resources, traveling by motorcycle (2
billion); and Level 4, first-world countries, traveling by car (1 billion).
In short, says Rosling, there’s
a range, and significantly, most people are in the middle, not the extremes. To
control for the gap instinct, he advises:
-
Beware
of comparing averages. They have a way of disguising important in-between
information.
-
Beware
of comparing extremes – for example, the extreme poverty in Sudan versus the
comfortable existence of Western countries.
-
Beware of
seeing the world “from up here.” Looking at others through the lens of one’s
own lived experience distorts what lies in the middle.
• The negativity instinct – This is the
widespread tendency to notice the bad more than the good. Pollsters found that
in 30 countries, more than half of the people surveyed believed things were
getting worse. And indeed, there are many bad things happening: terrorism,
overfishing, the crisis in Syria, rising seas, financial instability. But the
big picture shows overall progress: the percent of humans living in extreme
poverty fell from 85 percent in 1800 to 9 percent today; average life
expectancy has risen from 31 in 1800 to 72 today. There have been dramatic
improvements in a number of other areas: deaths from disasters, hunger, child
labor, plane crash deaths, HIV infections, legal slavery, nuclear weapons,
smallpox, ozone depletion, women’s right to vote, girls in school, literacy,
democracy, child cancer survival, mobile phones, drinkable water, Internet
access, and immunizations. To control for the negativity instinct, Rosling
advises:
-
Beware
of the myth of a rosy past.
-
Realize
that things can be bad and better at the same time.
-
Know
that more news does not equal more suffering.
-
Recognize
that good news and gradual improvement are almost never reported.
• The straight line instinct – This is the
tendency to believe that a trend line (for example, the population of the
planet) will continue in linear fashion. But trends change; for example, the
average number of babies per woman was almost 6 in 1800. Now it’s 2.5. A number
of important indicators change dramatically as people move from extreme poverty
to Level 4, bending the curves: schooling, age of marriage, literacy,
vaccinations. Rosling’s takeaway: don’t assume straight-line trends.
• The
fear instinct – “None of us has enough mental capacity to consume all the
information out there,” says Rosling. “The question is, what part are we
processing and how did it get selected? And what part are we neglecting?” We
focus on information that triggers fear: violence, sharp objects, forces of
nature, loss of control, entrapment, contamination. But deaths from natural
disasters, plane crashes, murders, nuclear leaks, and terrorism combined account for only 1 percent of people
who die each year. Frightening and dangerous are two different things, says
Rosling. “Paying too much attention to what is frightening rather than what is
dangerous – that is, paying too much attention to fear – creates a tragic
drainage of energy in the wrong direction… I would like my fear to be focused
on the mega dangers of today, and not the dangers from our evolutionary past.” One
more thing: When you’re afraid, make as few decisions as possible until the
panic has subsided.
• The size instinct
– There’s a strong tendency for people to get things out of proportion,
misjudge size, and exaggerate the importance of one data point. “The media is
this instinct’s friend,” says Rosling. “It is pretty much a journalist’s
professional duty to make any given event, fact, or number sound more important
than it is. And journalists know that it feels almost inhuman to look away from
an individual in pain.” But individual numbers can be profoundly misleading.
For example, in 2017, 4.2 million babies died worldwide. This sounds like a
terrible number, and each death is tragic for the parents and families
involved. But that number compares to 14.4 million babies dying in 1950. Given
that perspective, 4.2 million is “beautifully small,” says Rosling. Tremendous
progress has been made with infant mortality, and the trend continues. To
control for the size instinct, it’s important to:
-
Put
statistics in perspective.
-
Apply
the 80/20 rule: look at the few largest items on a list and deal with them
first; usually, dealing with 20 percent takes care of 80 percent of the problem.
-
Amounts
and rates can tell very different stories, and rates are more meaningful,
especially when comparing different-sized groups.
• The generalization instinct – “Categories
are absolutely necessary for us to function,” says Rosling. “They give
structure to our thoughts… Everyone automatically categorizes and generalizes
all the time.” But generalizing can also distort our worldview. It can lead us
to group people or things together – stereotyping – and jump to the conclusion
that the people or things in that group are all alike. The gap instinct divides
the world into “us” and “them” and the generalization instinct makes us think
that “they” are all the same. To combat this instinct, Rosling suggests:
-
Look for
differences within groups.
-
Look for
similarities across groups.
-
Look for
differences across groups – don’t assume that what applies to one group applies
to another.
-
Beware
of “the majority.” It just means more than half, which could be 51 percent.
-
Beware
of vivid examples.
-
Assume
that people are not idiots.
• The destiny instinct – This is the idea
that innate characteristics determine the destinies of people, countries,
religions, and cultures – for example, that African nations will never catch up
to Western levels of civilization. Rosling says we need to recognize that many
things appear to be constant just because change is happening slowly, and that
even slow change is still change. Some pointers:
-
Keep
track of gradual improvements.
-
Update
your knowledge.
-
Talk to
Grandpa – he will remind you of how values have changed.
-
Collect
examples of cultural change. “Challenge the idea that today’s culture must also
have been yesterday’s, and will also be tomorrow’s,” he says.
• The single perspective instinct – “We
find simple ideas attractive,” says Rosling. “We enjoy that moment of insight,
we enjoy feeling we really understand or know something. And it is easy to take
off down a slippery slope…” Some examples: an ideologue who believes passionately
in the free market, another who is committed to equality. The key, says
Rosling, is to recognize that a single perspective can limit our imagination.
Some advice:
-
Test
your ideas.
-
Don’t
claim expertise beyond your field.
-
Remember
that no tool is good for every job.
-
Use
numbers, but not only numbers.
-
Beware
of simple ideas and simple solutions.
• The blame instinct – This is the human tendency “to find a
clear, simple reason why something bad has happened,” says Rosling. “It seems
that it comes very naturally for us to decide that when things go wrong, it
must be because of some bad individual with bad intentions. We like to believe
that things happen because someone wanted them to, that individuals have power
and agency; otherwise, the world feels unpredictable, confusing, frightening.”
The key, he says, is recognizing when a scapegoat is being used “and
remembering that blaming an individual often steals the focus from other
possible explanations and blocks our ability to prevent similar problems in the
future.” Workarounds:
-
Look for
causes, not villains.
-
Look for
systems, not heroes.
• The urgency instinct – This is the
tendency to believe it’s now or never, you have to decide now, you won’t have
another chance. “Relax,” says Rosling. “It’s almost never true. It’s almost
never that urgent, and it’s almost never an either/or.” His advice:
-
When
your urgency instinct is triggered, take a breath.
-
Insist
on the data.
-
Beware
of fortune-tellers. Any predictions about the future are uncertain.
-
Be wary
of drastic action. Look at possible side effects. Ask how the idea has been
tested. “Step-by-step practical improvements, and evaluation of their impact,
are less dramatic but usually more effective.”
But Rosling says there
are some global risks we should worry
about: global pandemics, financial collapse, World War III, climate change, and
extreme poverty.
Rosling closes with some thoughts on what we should be
teaching young people to protect the next generation from a lot of ignorance:
-
That there
are countries at all different levels of health and income, and most are in the
middle.
-
Their
own country’s socioeconomic position in relation to the rest of the world, and
how that is changing.
-
How their
own country progressed through the income levels to get to where it is now, and
how to use that knowledge to understand what life is like in other countries
today.
-
That
people in less-developed countries are moving up the income levels and their
lives generally are improving.
-
What
life was really like in the past so they do not mistakenly think that no
progress has been made.
-
How to
hold these two ideas at the same time: that bad things are going on in the
world, but that many things are getting better.
-
That
cultural and religious stereotypes are useless for understanding the world.
-
How to
consume the news and spot the drama without becoming stressed and hopeless.
-
Common
ways that people will try to trick them with numbers.
-
That the
world will keep changing and they will have to update their knowledge and
worldview throughout their lives.
Most of all, Rosling
concludes, we should be teaching our children humility and curiosity.
Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About
the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think by Hans Rosling with Ola Rosling and Anna
Rosling Rönnlung, Flatiron Books, 2018
Please Note, this summary by Kim Marshall appeared in issue #733 of The Marshall Memo, an excellent weekly resource for educators.
